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CIO Corner
Vantage Point
Navigate the market landscape using CIO Office's Vantage Point, highlighting the week's crucial themes.
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Trade Talks, Tight Metals, and the Tug-of-War in Rates
June 10, 2025
Markets open this week with cautious optimism as US–China trade talks resume in London. No breakthroughs yet, but the shift in tone alone has lifted sentiment. Asian equities are expected to trade higher, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index up over 2%. Trade data, though, tells a more sober story - Chinese exports to the US just posted their steepest drop in five years. The disconnect between headlines and hard numbers is where opportunity and risk sit.
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Tariffs, Treasuries, and Tech: This Week, Everything Talks
May 27, 2025
Markets are being pulled in multiple directions this week—tariff reprieves, tech earnings, real yield shocks, and a quietly weakening dollar. It’s not chaos—but it’s definitely not calm. Tariffs have been on pause, with the EU tariffs delayed until July 9. The US Dollar remains under pressure, making it the main theme in the FX space. Treasury yields are rising across the curve, but here’s the real concern: real yields are spiking while growth expectations collapse. Finlay, US' hard and soft data divergence continues to hold as sentiment weaknes but macro data holding up.
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Downgrade Dismissed, Risks Repriced
May 20, 2025
Markets have once again demonstrated their remarkable capacity to absorb headline risks. Last week’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody’s—removing the last AAA from a major agency—barely registered. Equity markets pushed higher, Treasury yields settled after initial volatility, and the dollar softened modestly. Investors appear to have concluded that the rating agencies are trailing indicators rather than market leaders. However, we note that the downgrade reflects risks that cannot be ignored: structural deficits, increasing issuance, and fiscal profligacy.
Contributor
Gareth Nicholson
CIO and Head Discretionary Portfolio Management
Disclaimer
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IWM CIO Corner Disclaimer
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