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CIO Corner
CIO Office Perspectives
Unlock exclusive insights into the latest market drivers and economic trends with CIO Office Perspectives.
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The Fiscal Gamble: Understanding Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill"
July 01, 2025
The most audacious fiscal expansion since the wartime economies of the 1940s stands before Congress in the form of President Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" - a 940-page legislative behemoth that recently cleared its first Senate hurdle with a razor-thin 51-49 vote. This legislation represents not merely another policy adjustment, but a fundamental rewiring of America's fiscal architecture that could reshape global capital flows for the next decade.
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The Big What Next
June 23, 2025
The Middle East is rattled. After more than a week of Israeli air strikes on Iran, the U.S. followed up by bombing Iranian nuclear facilities. Headlines now ask: What next? But there’s no simple answer—each twist could upend oil markets, military alliances, and global balance.
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Middle East on Edge
June 20, 2025
That’s been my recurring thought as I’ve spoken with clients and reviewed our positioning over the past week. Israel and Iran are exchanging blows. But markets aren’t reacting just to what’s happened. They’re bracing for what might. The geopolitical shock is real. But the bigger shock might be what it does to inflation, oil supply, and rate expectations.
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5 Key Macro Questions to Ask of US Economy
June 18, 2025
As we head into a critical Fed meeting this week, the narrative around the US economy is anything but clear. Markets remain buoyant, inflation seems temporarily tamed, and GDP appears to rebound. But under the surface, structural fractures are forming.
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What History of Middle East Conflicts Teach Us About Oil Volatility
June 17, 2025
Israel and Iran are trading blows with an intensity we haven’t seen before. Oil has spiked. The financial media is in full panic mode. But before we start repositioning our energy allocations based on fear, let’s look at what five decades of data actually tells us.
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Japan Macro Chart Pack
June 12, 2025
The BoJ is expected to maintain current rates through year-end, with the next hike anticipated in January 2026. While tourism remains strong, growth faces downside risks from global factors and Trump's tariffs. Inflation risks falling below 2%, with Governor Ueda expressing concerns about missing targets.
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Inflation Isn’t Dead, It’s in Hiding
June 12, 2025
Inflation is cooling — or so the numbers say. Markets cheered. Commentators called it a turning point. Bond yields dropped. Risk assets caught a bid. The narrative snapped back into familiar territory: the Fed has done its job, price pressures are fading, and rate cuts are finally on the table. But beneath the surface, something’s brewing that no one’s pricing in.
Contributor
Gareth Nicholson
CIO and Head Discretionary Portfolio Management
Disclaimer
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IWM CIO Corner Disclaimer
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