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CIO Corner
CIO Office Perspectives
Unlock exclusive insights into the latest market drivers and economic trends with CIO Office Perspectives.
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When the Golden Relationship Breaks: Rethinking Diversification in a Changing Stock–Bond World
October 14, 2025
For most of the past two decades, investors enjoyed a gift. Stocks and bonds, the twin pillars of traditional portfolios, moved in opposite directions. When equity markets sold off, Treasuries usually rallied. That negative correlation—the “golden parameter” of asset allocation—allowed portfolios to compound with less stress. It gave clients confidence that even in the darkest moments, bonds would cushion the blow. But history warns us this was an anomaly. For much of the 20th century, stocks and bonds often fell together.
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The Anatomy of Treasury Yields
October 13, 2025
Few signals matter more than U.S. Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury, often called the world’s most important asset, anchors everything from mortgage rates to equity valuations to the discounting of private market cash flows. Yet too often, yields are spoken about as a single number, when in fact they are the sum of moving parts. In this article, we break down those parts, share the lessons of history, and explain why today’s yield environment demands attention.
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Exceptional Expectations: Rethinking U.S. vs. Non-U.S. Equities
October 10, 2025
The U.S. markets have dominated investments for 15 years through tech innovation and corporate growth, making diversification seem unnecessary. However, this success was driven more by valuation increases than structural advantages. With valuations now at historic highs, wealth managers must communicate to clients that past performance may not predict future returns.
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October's Monthly Opportunity Compass: An Uneasy Calm
October 10, 2025
The market's narrative is crystallizing. This isn't about recession risk. It's about the accelerating erosion of fiat money's purchasing power amidst fiscal irresponsibility, playing out against a backdrop of historically compressed volatility despite extraordinary policy turbulence.
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Silver: The Shining Star of 2025 - A Perfect Storm of Demand and Scarcity
September 17, 2025
Silver is experiencing an unprecedented market transformation driven by: record-high industrial demand, persistent supply constraints and gold silver ratio at all-time highs. The metal's strong correlation with gold, combined with its characteristic higher beta, positions it favorably in the current market environment. Geopolitical risks and looser monetary policy globally are creating particularly favorable conditions for precious metals.
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On The Menu This Week (Sept 15 - Sept 19)
September 16, 2025
For the week ahead (September 15-19), central bank decisions take center stage with the Fed expected to cut rates by 25-50bps, while BoE and BoJ likely hold steady. Key economic data includes China's August activity indicators pointing to continued slowdown, while EU finance ministers gather in Copenhagen to discuss regional challenges. Markets will closely watch Powell's press conference for future policy direction amid soft jobs data.
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Market Paradoxes: Broken Correlations and Mixed Signals
September 11, 2025
We're witnessing the structural breakdown of the post-2008 monetary regime that has governed global markets for over a decade. Traditional market relationships—yield-dollar correlations, credit spreads, equity-bond dynamics—are getting fractured simultaneously as three fundamental forces reshape the investment landscape: deglobalization fragmenting synchronized policy responses, fiscal dominance challenging central bank omnipotence, and geopolitical competition replacing economic cooperation.
Contributor
Gareth Nicholson
CIO and Head Discretionary Portfolio Management
Disclaimer
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IWM CIO Corner Disclaimer
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