Please select your default language.
Select Language
CIO Corner
CIO Office Perspectives
Unlock exclusive insights into the latest market drivers and economic trends with CIO Office Perspectives.
-
Demystifying the Concerns Around Private Credit
March 25, 2026
Private credit has grown to roughly $3 trillion globally – and is projected to reach $5 trillion by 2029 – and for much of its modern life it has enjoyed surging demand: strong returns, low reported defaults, and the cushion of opaque, mark-to-model valuations. More recently, however, the very features that made private credit attractive since the post-GFC period are the ones drawing the current scrutiny. The comfort is now fraying at the edges. A series of high-profile defaults in late 2025 have revived concerns about the so-called ‘cockroaches’ and hidden risk. In this note, we try to peel back the layers of private credit to understand what these stress factors are and whether the current market reaction towards this space is justified.
-
March 2026 Monthly - Peering Into the Post-Conflict Playbook
March 19, 2026
The investment landscape has changed materially over the last month. What began as geopolitical tension in the Middle East has become an active conflict zone, with adverse consequences for global energy markets, inflation, and portfolio construction. Investors must now operate in a fundamentally different risk environment. Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel on March 8 for the first time in four years, rising to $126 per barrel at its peak. Both Brent and WTI have surged more than 50% over the past month, reaching their highest levels since 2022. Strategic reserve releases – the IEA coordinated a 400-million-barrel drawdown, equivalent to only approximately 20 days of typical Hormuz flows – provide a temporary buffer, not a structural fix. The bottleneck is physical, not financial. Against this backdrop, we recommend hedging portfolios against continued volatility, positioning for higher inflation, and monetizing volatility via structured products.
-
Peering Into the Post-Conflict Playbook
March 16, 2025
Markets entered 2026 with the wind at their backs – a broadening equity rally, a Federal Reserve in easing mode, and AI-driven investment still accelerating. Despite lingering inflation worries, the overall gradual weakening trend in the labour market kept rate cut bets intact at the start of the year. Rather than trying to predict the outcome, in this note, we try to assess how the macro scenarios may have shifted. In our view, the stagflation risk has graduated from a tail risk scenario to a more central one/base case, but severe stagflation is (still) not our base case. For investors, the question is ‘how stagflationary’ and an assessment of what’s in the price. Peering into the post-conflict playbook, we think a range of opportunities will likely arise for investors of both short- and long- term investment horizon.
-
Thoughts on Tech and the Market
February 25, 2026
Recent market turbulence driven by AI disruption concerns, policy uncertainty, and economic noise creates tactical opportunities for investors. We maintain our constructive AI outlook, viewing current volatility as a chance to enhance portfolio quality at attractive entry points. The AI infrastructure layer remains our preferred exposure area. While US Tech remains essential for long-term growth, concentration risk demands attention. Capital flows increasingly favor diversification beyond tech and US markets, reflecting recent outperformance in non-tech sectors and international markets. We recommend broadening exposure to quality non-tech and non-US companies for enhanced portfolio resilience.
-
What's Next for Gold & Silver After the Correction?
February 02, 2026
Parabolic rallies inevitably reverse sharply. Gold and silver have declined 16% and 35% respectively since Friday, driven by Fed chair nomination surprise and leveraged position unwinding. Cross-asset correlations are rising as all risk assets retreat. While near-term liquidity concerns overshadow fundamentals, gold's retreat toward $4,500 creates attractive accumulation opportunities for long-term investors seeking portfolio diversification.
-
Diversification is the Name of the Game
January 23, 2026
Recent events and market reactions reinforce our calls for diversification to non-US markets in 2026. We note that over the week when Greenland became the dominant issue, the trio of USD, UST and US equities underperformed, while markets in HK/China, Japan, and even Europe (arguably in the middle of it) all showed remarkable resilience. The USD weakened vs. major currencies. And Gold outperformed. Despite the spirit of TACO being alive and well, geopolitical risks like these could lead to more risk premiums on US assets, further strengthening the YTD outperformance of non-US assets.
-
Japan: The Snap Election and What It Means for Markets
January 20, 2026
Japan’s Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, has announced plans to dissolve the Lower House on January 23. The election is slated to be held on February 8. These have confirmed the various media reports on this issue over the last few days. Although everyone knows Takaichi-san will eventually need to hold an election, not many analysts or investors anticipated this to come this early. From a market perspective, investors seem to believe that the fate of the ‘Takaichi trade’ (higher equities, higher bond yields, weaker JPY) will therefore rest on the election result.
Contributor
Julia Wang
CIO North Asia
Disclaimer
-
IWM CIO Corner Disclaimer
This material has been prepared by the International Wealth Management business line of Nomura International (Hong Kong) Limited (“NIHK”) and/or Nomura Singapore Limited (“NSL”), and if applicable, with the contribution of one or more of its affiliates (collectively, “Nomura Group”). This is not a research report and the contents herein are strictly general and macro in nature and should not be considered research. This material is: (i) for your information only, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it; (ii) not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investments or accept any services in any jurisdiction where it may be illegal; and (iii) provided on the basis that it must not be relied upon for any purpose.
While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, no representation, warranty or undertaking, expressed or implied, is made and no responsibility or liability is accepted by the Nomura Group and/or its directors, officers and employees as to the accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose of the information contained herein or any other information provided by any other person in connection with the information described herein or their distribution or for the results obtained from the use of this information. Nomura Group and/or its directors, officers and employees do not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss or damage (including, without limitation, direct, indirect or consequential loss or loss of profits or loss of opportunity) suffered by you or any third party in connection with the use of this material or its contents.
Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice, and the Nomura Group is not in any way providing any investment advice. You should refrain from entering into, or purchasing any investment product unless you fully understand all the risks involved and you have independently determined that the investment is suitable for you. If you are in doubt to any aspect of this material, you should consult your own counsel, stockbroker or other professional advisers as to the legal, tax, financial and related aspects of any investment with specific reference to your particular circumstances.