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    Get your daily round-up of markets, macroeconomic trends, and global shifts through the Daily Macro Lens.

    • Revisiting the Widowmaker Trade in Japan

      January 08, 2026

      The historically loss-making trade of shorting Japanese Government Bonds is now delivering profits. After two decades of ultra-low BoJ rates despite Japan's debt exceeding 200% of GDP, recent policy shifts have changed the landscape. The BoJ's exit from yield curve control and monetary normalization, combined with PM Takaichi's stimulus-focused approach and strong economic indicators, have driven JGB yields higher through 2025, creating new fiscal pressures.

    • A Shock from Caracas - Or Was It?

      January 07, 2026

      Markets absorbed the developments in Venezuela with measured composure. Oil remained anchored given limited supply exposure, while gold attracted safe-haven flows. Near-term volatility can be expected, though sustained moves require meaningful escalation.

    • Beyond the Safe Haven Allure

      January 06, 2026

      Gold resumed its uptrend following the capture of Venezuela's president on Saturday. Heading into 2026, concerns of rising debt in the US also continue to provide a fillip to the precious metal. At the same time, broader structural and financial characteristics (a dovish Fed, record gold ETF inflows, and continued central bank buying) have positioned the metal favorably.

    • From Inversion to Steepening

      January 05, 2026

      The US Treasury yield curve has steepened significantly over the past month, with the 10y-2y spread reaching 70-72bp—its highest since January 2022. This likely reflects market expectations of modest Fed rate cuts, resilient economic growth, and persistent inflation concerns, marking fifteen months of positive curve positioning since September 2024.

    • 2026 Looks Bright for the Euro

      December 19, 2025

      The Euro enjoys triple support through 2026: historic low unemployment providing resilience, effective monetary policy boosting investment, and fiscal stimulus led by German infrastructure spending, positioning it favorably against Fed and BoE dovishness.

    Contributors

     

    Gareth Nicholson

    CIO and Head Discretionary Portfolio Management

     

    Julia Wang

    CIO North Asia

    Disclaimer

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