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CIO Corner
Daily Macro Lens
Get your daily round-up of markets, macroeconomic trends, and global shifts through the Daily Macro Lens.
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Beyond the Euro’s Cyclical Tailwinds
February 17, 2026
The euro’s rally reflects more than dollar weakness - it signals structural capital reallocation, supportive positioning, and narrowing policy divergence. With institutional flows strengthening and Fed easing approaching, EUR/USD remains biased higher. Near-term consolidation is likely, but the euro’s regime shift toward reserve diversification and sustained inflows reinforces its role as a core portfolio overweight.
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January’s US CPI Inflation Not a Major Market Mover
February 16, 2026
January CPI met expectations at 0.3% MoM with muted core goods inflation. Tariff-sensitive goods showed acceleration while less sensitive goods decelerated, reflecting lagged tariff impacts amid resilient growth and stabilizing labor markets. Despite limited impact on core PCE expected, elevated inflation trajectory and political developments suggest Fed will likely maintain current stance through Powell's term-end.
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Strong NFP Data Flips Fed Timeline
February 12, 2026
January payrolls surged by 130,000 - well above expectations of 65,000 - forcing markets to reassess Fed policy. This reinforces our view that the Fed is likely to maintain status quo at least through May 2026 when Powell's term as Fed Chair comes to an end. The dollar strengthened and Treasury yields rose. From a positioning perspective, it would be prudent to consider dollar-long positions, overweight healthcare/construction/AI sectors, while maintaining a defensive utilities exposure.
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Cross-Asset Performances in 2026 YTD
February 11, 2026
Global markets have broadened beyond AI/tech as cyclicals and EM equities outperformed, while large-cap US tech lagged. In commodities, oil, gold, and silver have rallied, while Bitcoin has plummeted. Diversification plays have caused EMs and value stocks to emerge as winners, but software and select tech ETFs saw weakness. Regulatory shifts in China and safe-haven demand have added to to market divergence and defensive positioning.
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Policy Pivot Down Under
February 10, 2026
The RBA has joined the Bank of Japan in raising interest rates following strong economic data, with a February 2026 hike marking a shift to more restrictive monetary policy, while the Fed remains relatively dovish with two rate cuts expected through 2026. The AUD has appreciated from 0.60 levels in April 2025 to current levels between 0.64-0.67, supported by policy divergence expectations (one more RBA hike vs Fed cuts) and narrowing yield differentials, with the currency likely to benefit further until potential RBA rate cuts begin around mid-2027.
Contributor
Julia Wang
CIO North Asia
Disclaimer
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IWM CIO Corner Disclaimer
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