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CIO Corner
Daily Macro Lens
Get your daily round-up of markets, macroeconomic trends, and global shifts through the Daily Macro Lens.
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Balancing DOGE Headwinds with Private Sector Strength
December 16, 2025
November NFP expected at 50k, reflecting gradual labor market cooling. DOGE resignations weigh on government employment, but private payrolls remain resilient, supporting dovish Fed policy stance.
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From Tokyo to London – A Week of Pivotal Central Bank Meetings
December 15, 2025
This week brings pivotal central bank decisions across major economies. Japan's BoJ is likely to hike rates on Friday. Over in Europe, the ECB is set to maintain its pause while the BoE likely cuts by 25bp.
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Repricing the Long Game
December 12, 2025
Long-term bond yields remain elevated as markets grapple with expanding government debt and fiscal spending across major economies. Despite central bank dovishness, investors demand higher risk premiums, shifting focus from monetary to fiscal policy amid persistent inflation, geopolitical uncertainties, and growing deficits.
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Mixed Signals Despite an Expected Cut
December 11, 2025
The Fed cut rates as expected but sent mixed signals. Markets turned slightly dovish with rising equities and a softer dollar, while strong fundamentals support a favorable investment outlook.
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Rich Valuations, Modest Returns
December 10, 2025
When blended valuation percentiles exceed 90%, equity returns drop significantly over longer periods. After three years of high-teen returns, investors should temper expectations and prioritize active management plus diversification across assets and sectors.
Contributors
Gareth Nicholson
CIO and Head Discretionary Portfolio Management
Julia Wang
CIO North Asia
Disclaimer
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IWM CIO Corner Disclaimer
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