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    Get your daily round-up of markets, macroeconomic trends, and global shifts through the Daily Macro Lens.

    • Oil Above $100 Amid Middle East Escalation

      March 10, 2026

      The Middle East conflict has intensified following the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's Supreme Leader after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (his father). Oil prices have surged amid disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing inflation expectations higher and weighing on global markets as investors reassess central banks policies and growth prospects.

    • The US Jobs Stabilization Story Continues

      March 06, 2026

      February's expected 80k payroll gain, following the solid January gains, is likely to reflect a resilient jobs market. While payback risks exist, underlying employment trends remain constructive with stabilizing unemployment rates. This backdrop supports Fed patience through Powell's tenure as Chair. Markets face a delicate balance: softer prints favor bonds via easing bets, while stronger data lifts yields and equities.

    • Geopolitics Reigniting the Energy-Inflation Channel

      March 05, 2026

      Rising geopolitical tensions have pushed the Geopolitical Uncertainty Index sharply higher, lifting crude oil prices and reintroducing an energy risk premium. Markets are responding with firmer near-term inflation expectations, driving 2-year breakevens higher, while 5-year breakevens move more modestly on policy credibility.

    • The Boom-and-Bust Cycles in Oil Markets

      March 04, 2026

      Oil repeatedly overshoots trend during geopolitical shocks, only to mean revert. Today’s Middle East escalation adds supply tail risk and volatility. In portfolios, gold offers superior protection to USTs - shielding against inflation, duration risk, fiscal strain and geopolitical uncertainty.

    • Selective Optimism in European Equities

      March 02, 2026

      Eurozone growth is stabilising and disinflation is progressing, anchoring policy expectations. However, with the STOXX Europe 600 near 15x forward earnings, upside now depends on durable earnings momentum. We remain tactically constructive, favouring pricing power, balance-sheet strength and earnings visibility over cyclical beta.

    Contributor

     

    Julia Wang

    CIO North Asia

    Disclaimer

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