Select Language

Please select your default language.

    Save

    Get your daily round-up of markets, macroeconomic trends, and global shifts through the Daily Macro Lens.

    • Capex and the AI Cycle Test

      October 16, 2026

      Samsung and SK Hynix face a critical earnings credibility test as a $1 trillion semiconductor sell-off exposes financing constraints threatening AI capex. Rising rates and $10 trillion in AI-sector debt have shifted focus from demand to financing resilience. Current valuations offer downside risk if hyperscaler capex guidance disappoints, or tactical entry if capex holds firm.

    • Stress Across Markets from Higher Inflation

      October 15, 2026

      The market repricing is structural, not cyclical. Hot CPI killed the "soft landing" narrative; December rate hikes now priced at 90%. Tech's AI premium compressed as higher rates pressure valuations. The real takeaway: quality and duration matter more than growth. Position for a higher-for-longer rate environment. Dollar strength and credit tightening reward disciplined capital allocation over momentum plays.

    • Geopolitics Shape Headline CPI While Core Signals Are Mixed

      October 13, 2026

      September CPI expectations: headline 2.6% MoM, core 0.2% MoM. Geopolitical tensions keep energy elevated; Brent above $100/bbl. Fed likely holds rates through October (~80% probability). Market positioning: core momentum supports rate stability, but equity upside hinges on defensive positioning and energy hedges. FX carry trades benefit from higher-yield currencies. December rate cuts remain uncertain—binary outcome depends on inflation trajectory.

    • Equities Have Remained Resilient to Bond Market Volatilities So Far

      October 12, 2026

      Bond volatility has surged to the 97th percentile while equity volatility remains muted, reflecting divergent drivers: AI-fueled earnings resilience supports stocks, yet higher yields and duration risk pressure bonds. Unlike 2022's inflation panic, today's regime is growth-driven. Credit stress is emerging in lower-rated segments. Equities face material headwinds in duration-sensitive sectors, while fixed income offers improved compensation—a distinction reshaping portfolio positioning.

    • EUR/CHF – Europe’s Fiscal Stress Meter

      October 09, 2026

      EUR/CHF has emerged as a barometer for eurozone fiscal stress. French 10-year yields surged 100bp since July, widening the France–Germany spread beyond 150bp — approaching 2011 crisis levels. Meanwhile, SNB dovishness contrasts sharply with Fed hawkishness, driving safe haven flows into the franc. The pair now signals contagion risk; a fiscal resolution could spark a corrective bounce, while deterioration risks extending CHF strength.

    Contributors

    CIO Office

     

    Ray Sharma-OngCIO and Head Discretionary Portfolio Management

     

    Julia Wang CIO North Asia


    Tathagata Bhar
    NSFSPL
    Anuragh Balajee
    NSFSPL

    Disclaimer

    • IWM CIO Corner Disclaimer

      This material has been prepared by the International Wealth Management business line of Nomura International (Hong Kong) Limited (“NIHK”) and/or Nomura Singapore Limited (“NSL”), and if applicable, with the contribution of one or more of its affiliates (collectively, “Nomura Group”). This is not a research report and the contents herein are strictly general and macro in nature and should not be considered research. This material is: (i) for your information only, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it; (ii) not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investments or accept any services in any jurisdiction where it may be illegal; and (iii) provided on the basis that it must not be relied upon for any purpose.

      While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, no representation, warranty or undertaking, expressed or implied, is made and no responsibility or liability is accepted by the Nomura Group and/or its directors, officers and employees as to the accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose of the information contained herein or any other information provided by any other person in connection with the information described herein or their distribution or for the results obtained from the use of this information. Nomura Group and/or its directors, officers and employees do not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss or damage (including, without limitation, direct, indirect or consequential loss or loss of profits or loss of opportunity) suffered by you or any third party in connection with the use of this material or its contents.

      Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice, and the Nomura Group is not in any way providing any investment advice. You should refrain from entering into, or purchasing any investment product unless you fully understand all the risks involved and you have independently determined that the investment is suitable for you. If you are in doubt to any aspect of this material, you should consult your own counsel, stockbroker or other professional advisers as to the legal, tax, financial and related aspects of any investment with specific reference to your particular circumstances.

      ‘NSFSPL’ next to an employee’s name indicates that the individual is employed by Nomura Structured Finance Services Private Limited to provide assistance to certain Nomura entities under inter-company agreements.

    Loading, please wait.