Please select your default language.
Select Language
CIO Corner
Daily Macro Lens
Get your daily round-up of markets, macroeconomic trends, and global shifts through the Daily Macro Lens.
-
Fertilizer Supply Chains: A Silent Shock With Lagged Consequences
April 20, 2026
Seven weeks on, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut. A 24-hour Iranian reopening on April 17 collapsed within hours as the US refused to lift its naval blockade. The consequences are more than just the energy supply chain disruption. The strait is also crucial for Middle East fertilizer exports. Urea is up 49% since the war began. The shock to harvests is not immediate, it's with a lag.
-
From Support to Resistance for the Dollar
April 15, 2026
The DXY’s 100 level has flipped from multi-year support to hard resistance — and the asymmetry is telling. Near-term safe-haven demand and a frozen Fed offer tactical dollar support, but twin deficits, fading US exceptionalism, and foreign portfolio outflows define the medium-term trajectory.
-
The Policy Divergence Trade
April 14, 2026
Rate divergence is doing the heavy lifting for the AUD. With the RBA at 4.10% and hiking, the Fed on hold, and 2-year AU/US spreads widening, AUD/USD has reclaimed 0.703 handle — up 6.19% in YTD 2026. The April 8 ceasefire adds a risk-on tailwind. Australia’s commodity exporter status does the rest along with the favorable rate differential angle. The structural bull case is broadly intact.
-
A Multi-Year Recovery Timeline For The Gulf's Energy Infra
April 13, 2026
The Gulf's energy infrastructure faces a minimum $25 billion repair bill — with engineering and construction absorbing 49% of costs and equipment a further 39%. Capital is not the constraint; OEM backlogs of 2-4 years for critical gas turbines are. Qatar’s Ras Laffan alone has lost 12.8 mn tonnes per year of LNG capacity, with full restoration estimated at up to five years. A ceasefire reopens the Strait but it does not restore the capacity. Supply normalization is a 2027–2028 story at best.
-
The War Angle – From Neutral to a Negative Outlook for Eurozone
April 10, 2026
Europe’s confidence gauge just fell off a cliff. The Sentix index plunged from -3.1 to -19.2 in a single month — the steepest one-month deterioration in over a year — as Operation Epic Fury reshapes the eurozone’s growth calculus. Energy shocks, shipping disruptions, and a paralysed ECB have recession back on the table. The Euro wobbles. Investor positioning must follow suit.
Contributor
Julia Wang
CIO North Asia
Disclaimer
-
IWM CIO Corner Disclaimer
This material has been prepared by the International Wealth Management business line of Nomura International (Hong Kong) Limited (“NIHK”) and/or Nomura Singapore Limited (“NSL”), and if applicable, with the contribution of one or more of its affiliates (collectively, “Nomura Group”). This is not a research report and the contents herein are strictly general and macro in nature and should not be considered research. This material is: (i) for your information only, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it; (ii) not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investments or accept any services in any jurisdiction where it may be illegal; and (iii) provided on the basis that it must not be relied upon for any purpose.
While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, no representation, warranty or undertaking, expressed or implied, is made and no responsibility or liability is accepted by the Nomura Group and/or its directors, officers and employees as to the accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose of the information contained herein or any other information provided by any other person in connection with the information described herein or their distribution or for the results obtained from the use of this information. Nomura Group and/or its directors, officers and employees do not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss or damage (including, without limitation, direct, indirect or consequential loss or loss of profits or loss of opportunity) suffered by you or any third party in connection with the use of this material or its contents.
Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice, and the Nomura Group is not in any way providing any investment advice. You should refrain from entering into, or purchasing any investment product unless you fully understand all the risks involved and you have independently determined that the investment is suitable for you. If you are in doubt to any aspect of this material, you should consult your own counsel, stockbroker or other professional advisers as to the legal, tax, financial and related aspects of any investment with specific reference to your particular circumstances.