Please select your default language.
Select Language
CIO Corner
Daily Macro Lens
Get your daily round-up of markets, macroeconomic trends, and global shifts through the Daily Macro Lens.
-
One Tape – Chips and Yields
August 19, 2026
Two unrelated pressures met on Tuesday’s tape. Semiconductors fell 5.5% on reports of $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet AI commitments, into a trade that had run hard all year. Separately, sovereign yields pushed to multi-year highs across the US, Japan, Germany and France. Asia opened into both, with domestic duration pressure of its own.
-
"Jack, I'm Flying"
August 18, 2026
Long-dated bonds are repricing worldwide, and weaker growth data is not stopping it. Deficits, AI-linked corporate issuance and fewer natural buyers of long paper are lifting the term premium. The 30-year US Treasury yield is at 5.31%, a 19-year high. This rising long end phenomenon is not restricted just to the US but is also visible in Germany (despite a relatively well contained debt at 64-65% of GDP), France, UK, and Japan (all above 100% of GDP). Long bonds now yield more, but protect portfolios less.
-
Steeper Without Easing
August 17, 2026
The Treasury curve has bear-steepened since mid-June—2s10s widening 22bp, 5s30s by 23bp — driven entirely by the long end while the front end holds steady. This reflects term premium repricing, more so than markets repricing Fed rate actions. A hawkish-hold Fed (three dissents favoring hikes) anchors the front, while fiscal stress and inflation uncertainty push duration pricing to multi-decade highs. Both forces appear durable through autumn.
-
A Crowded Trade, Lightly Trimmed
August 14, 2026
Entering 2026, markets priced the Fed to ease most - a dollar-negative premise. The Iran conflict reversed the dollar through safe-haven demand and energy terms of trade instead, not rates. The July 31 intervention then triggered the largest weekly long reduction in six years, yet positioning stays firmly dollar-bullish. The crowding broke, not the premise.
-
Relief in the Component the Fed Doesn’t Control
August 13, 2026
July's CPI met expectations—headline +0.1%, core +0.2% — but energy's drop flattered the print while shelter drove two-thirds of the gain. Markets repriced timing, not direction: hike odds receded, the curve steepened, equities held near highs, and the dollar firmed—consistent with a Fed pause carrying a tightening bias.
Contributors
CIO Office
Julia Wang CIO North Asia
Tathagata Bhar
NSFSPL
Anuragh Balajee
NSFSPL
Disclaimer
-
IWM CIO Corner Disclaimer
This material has been prepared by the International Wealth Management business line of Nomura International (Hong Kong) Limited (“NIHK”) and/or Nomura Singapore Limited (“NSL”), and if applicable, with the contribution of one or more of its affiliates (collectively, “Nomura Group”). This is not a research report and the contents herein are strictly general and macro in nature and should not be considered research. This material is: (i) for your information only, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it; (ii) not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investments or accept any services in any jurisdiction where it may be illegal; and (iii) provided on the basis that it must not be relied upon for any purpose.
While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, no representation, warranty or undertaking, expressed or implied, is made and no responsibility or liability is accepted by the Nomura Group and/or its directors, officers and employees as to the accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose of the information contained herein or any other information provided by any other person in connection with the information described herein or their distribution or for the results obtained from the use of this information. Nomura Group and/or its directors, officers and employees do not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss or damage (including, without limitation, direct, indirect or consequential loss or loss of profits or loss of opportunity) suffered by you or any third party in connection with the use of this material or its contents.
Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice, and the Nomura Group is not in any way providing any investment advice. You should refrain from entering into, or purchasing any investment product unless you fully understand all the risks involved and you have independently determined that the investment is suitable for you. If you are in doubt to any aspect of this material, you should consult your own counsel, stockbroker or other professional advisers as to the legal, tax, financial and related aspects of any investment with specific reference to your particular circumstances.
‘NSFSPL’ next to an employee’s name indicates that the individual is employed by Nomura Structured Finance Services Private Limited to provide assistance to certain Nomura entities under inter-company agreements.