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CIO Corner
Daily Macro Lens
Get your daily round-up of markets, macroeconomic trends, and global shifts through the Daily Macro Lens.
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Pickup of US Equities over Treasuries has Narrowed
September 28, 2026
The S&P 500 blended forward earnings yield and the 10-year Treasury yield are close to parity near 5%, having narrowed since mid-2023. The earnings yield held near 5.2% while the 10-year yield rose from 3.81% to 5.17%. Equity returns rely on earnings delivery, while Treasuries offer a comparable starting yield.
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Positioning Test for EM Equities as US Yields Surge
September 25, 2026
US Treasury yields, both nominal and real, have risen to multi-decade highs on strong activity data, weak auction demand, and rising term premium, with the dollar strengthening in tandem — tightening global financial conditions for emerging markets. HSBC's latest survey shows softening EM sentiment and only modestly higher cash levels, leaving positioning exposed to a reversal in flows.
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Fed Path Repricing Higher Days After September FOMC
September 24, 2026
US yields surged this week driven by stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMI (57.0 vs. 53.7 consensus), a weak 5-year auction, potential diesel ban inflationary pressures, and Fed Chair Barr's hawkish comments signaling further policy tightening. The 10-year yield reached 2007 highs. Markets now price three additional hikes by end-2027, a material hawkish shift from dot plot expectations.
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From First- to Second-Round Inflation and Its Market Impact
September 23, 2026
The energy shock has reached goods prices; the question is whether it reaches wages. Goods inflation is rising in the UK and euro area, while services and US core remain contained. Expectations are the pressure point. Persistent conflict keeps pressure on the front end; de-escalation would ease it first there, with disinflation arriving gradually. Intermediate maturities balance both outcomes.
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US HY Credit - Calm on the Surface, but Is It?
September 22, 2026
US high yield spreads at 5Y tights, but that's partly due to the composition - BB now makes up nearly half the index. However, CCC tells a different story, having widened to nearly 1000 bp. In 2015-16's energy-led cycle, CCC repriced first before the broader HY segment came under pressure. This is a parallel worth keeping an eye on given the current geopolitical and macro backdrop.
Contributors
CIO Office
Julia Wang CIO North Asia
Tathagata Bhar
NSFSPL
Anuragh Balajee
NSFSPL
Disclaimer
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IWM CIO Corner Disclaimer
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