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CIO Corner
Daily Macro Lens
Get your daily round-up of markets, macroeconomic trends, and global shifts through the Daily Macro Lens.
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Front End Higher; Long End Resolute
August 31, 2026
Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole address — reaffirming 2% inflation target and insufficient restriction—drove 2-year yields up 12bp to 4.35%. Yet the long end barely moved: 10-year +6bp, 30-year near 2008 highs. Duration now prices fiscal credibility and Treasury supply — not policy path—as federal debt nears $40 trillion.
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Chipmakers See a Surge in Free Cash Flows
August 28, 2026
A generational cash transfer is underway: chipmaker free cash flow has climbed to US$360bn and is on track to exceed US$1trn by mid-2027, fueled by US$725bn in hyperscaler AI capex this year. Meanwhile, the buyers—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft—are burning cash to build capacity, with several reporting negative free cash flow for the first time in decades.
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Buying Bonds, Not Time
August 27, 2026
US debt is nearing $40trn, about a trillion below the statutory ceiling it should reach in 2027. Long-dated yields hit their highest since 2007 this month, and net interest is running at $963bn. Treasury doubled its long-end buybacks in response. The rally lasted a day. Buybacks improve how the market trades, not what it must absorb.
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Bonds Under Pressure; Equities, Not So Much
August 26, 2026
Middle East tensions drove WTI from $64/bbl to $88/bbl, yet crude volatility is declining faster than prices—suggesting equities look past disruptions while bonds face prolonged pressure from elevated yields and AI capital competition. History suggests equity recovery in 2–3 months; bonds endure extended stress. Overnight Hormuz shipping developments offer potential relief if sustained.
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Positioning, Structural Bid Pointing to Further Gold Upside
August 25, 2026
Structural dollar weakness may be emerging through two key signals: rising gold amid US fiscal stress and cryptocurrency revival. CFTC data shows gold net longs at 222k contracts, though well below 2024 peaks, and suggests further upside. Treasury intervention has failed to stabilize markets, reviving the debasement trade narrative. Positively for gold, central bank demand remains robust, with 45% of central banks polled in World Gold Council's Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey planning increases in gold buying over the next 12 months.
Contributors
CIO Office
Julia Wang CIO North Asia
Tathagata Bhar
NSFSPL
Anuragh Balajee
NSFSPL
Disclaimer
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IWM CIO Corner Disclaimer
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