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    Get your daily round-up of markets, macroeconomic trends, and global shifts through the Daily Macro Lens.

    • Higher Capex, Higher Bar

      July 29, 2026

      Google's and Oracle's free cash flow has peaked and turned negative as AI capex outruns even these cash machines. Alphabet grew revenue 24% and still sold off — because it raised capex guidance again. That’s the template for Meta and Microsoft today: strong growth is no longer enough, and another capex hike is now a risk, not a reassurance.

    • Some Ahead of the Curve and Some Behind?

      July 28, 2026

      FourThe question on every central banker's mind: how much of the energy-driven inflation should be looked through. The Fed is likely to hold but markets are pricing in ~33% probability of a hike tomorrow. The ECB, having moved first in June, can now pause from strength; the BoE is likely to hold again; the BoJ normalises gradually. The new divide isn’t terminal rate — it is the first-mover timing, and the ECB now has the optionality the Fed lacks..

    • Two Gates, One Lock

      July 24, 2026

      Bab el-Mandeb isn’t a second front — it’s the closing of the first one’s escape hatch. With Saudi barrels rerouted to Yanbu now under Houthi blockade, Hormuz has no valve: one constraint, not two. Weekly transits are down 66% and Brent near $101. Headline inflation retraces fast; war-risk repricing keeps delivered costs elevated well past any ceasefire.

    • What The Long End is Actually Trading On

      July 23, 2026

      The US 30-year has held above 5% for 27 days this year, the longest stretch since 2007. Yet June’s downside CPI surprise moved the front end and left the long bond untouched. Geopolitics, inflation, a hawkish Fed, and the supply story are simultaneously acting on the UST curve, especially the long end.

    • Can Geopolitical and Central Bank Bids Support Gold?

      July 22, 2026

      Gold is catching a geopolitical bid as US–Iran tensions flare, pushing spot prices to $4,133/oz despite a hawkish Fed backdrop that would typically weigh on the metal. Central bank demand remains the structural anchor—89% of surveyed central banks expect reserve additions over the next twelve months. Near-term direction is genuinely two-sided: the safe-haven case versus rates repricing.

    Contributors

    CIO Office

     

    Julia Wang CIO North Asia

    Tathagata Bhar
    NSFSPL
    Anuragh Balajee
    NSFSPL

    Disclaimer

    • IWM CIO Corner Disclaimer

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