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CIO Corner
Daily Macro Lens
Get your daily round-up of markets, macroeconomic trends, and global shifts through the Daily Macro Lens.
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Is the Debasement Trade Over? Most Likely Not
July 10, 2026
2026 has flipped the debasement trade: the dollar sits near 13-month highs while gold has fallen roughly 28% from its January peak. The driver is a hawkish Fed repricing after the oil shock. But with deficits, reserve diversification, and central-bank buying intact, this looks like a rate-driven correction, not the end of the structural case.
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Higher Rates, Not Higher Inflation Fear
July 09, 2026
The 10-year is climbing, but don’t blame inflation fear. Breakevens sit anchored near target while nominal yields grind higher — a real-rate story. Warsh’s hawkish credibility keeps the oil shock from de-anchoring expectations and pushes it into the front end: the market’s pricing hikes, so the curve is bear-flattening, not steepening. Duration pays carry, not protection. Watch for a re-steepener once the Fed signals it’s done hiking — or if growth cracks and the front end rallies.
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The Yen's Anchor Has Slipped
July 08, 2026
The yen has slipped its anchor. The 10-year JGB–Treasury gap has more than halved since 2023, yet the yen sits at a four-decade low. Japan’s long-end selloff is fiscal, not hawkish — and carry lives at the front end, where ~260bp still favours the dollar. Fade the narrowing-spread rally. Intervention caps; it doesn’t reverse. Watch September’s BoJ.
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US Equity Leadership Inverted
July 07, 2026
US equity leadership has inverted in 2026: the S&P 500 ex Mag 7 leads decisively while the megacap cohort sits near flat, despite a spring Iran driven drawdown. With Warsh’s Fed holding a hawkish line rather than easing and June payrolls softening, the durability of this broadening now hinges on inflation, Hormuz energy risk, and whether the lagging Mag 7 mean reverts.
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Data Surprises Drove the Front End, and the Front End Drove 2s10s
July 06, 2026
The Citi US Economic Surprise Index and the 2s10s spread tell a single, joined-up story. A run of upside data surprises through spring reinforced a hawkish Warsh-led Fed, lifting the 2-year faster than the 10-year and bear-flattening the curve. June’s payrolls miss flipped the surprise flow negative, stalling the flatten and nudging a tentative re-steepening.
Contributors
CIO Office
Julia Wang CIO North Asia
Tathagata Bhar
NSFSPL
Anuragh Balajee
NSFSPL
Disclaimer
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IWM CIO Corner Disclaimer
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