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    CIO Corner

    Weekly Investment Themes

    Navigate the market landscape using CIO Office's Weekly Investment Themes, highlighting the week's crucial themes.

    • Monetizing Uncertainty

      October 13, 2026

      Markets are navigating sharply polarized scenarios with little room for middle ground. On the downside, geopolitical escalation could push oil above $100/barrel, drive US 10Y yields past 5.37%, and weaken corporate earnings. Conversely, a ceasefire agreement could unlock stock releases, yield corrections, and earnings upside. Treasury volatility has surged dramatically, with 20+ year bond call options hitting record levels. Key catalysts ahead include US earnings season and the September CPI release on October 14th. The optimal strategy: monetize volatility while maintaining exposure to quality names with strong cashflow tailwinds.

    • Geopolitical and Rates Volatility Dominating Markets

      October 06, 2026

      Geopolitical tensions have lifted Brent crude 43% since the US-Iran conflict began, with the Strait of Hormuz under persistent threat and thin energy buffers entering winter. This backdrop collides with mixed US signals: payrolls disappointed sharply, yet Treasury yields held firm on inflation concerns pushing October Fed hike odds below 20%. France amplifies the stress—OAT-Bund spreads hit 2011 highs on austerity measures, triggering European selloffs Portfolios could benefit "being paid to wait" i.e., overweight cash, short-duration, and gold hedges in this volatile, uncertain environment.

    • The AI, Rates, and Energy Confluence

      September 22, 2026

      Global tightening converged last week as the Fed and BoJ hiked to multi-year highs, oil surged on Gulf tensions, while credit risk seems to be budilding up gradually underneath the surface. Following calls from major AI companies' CEOs, positioning in AI requires stack-level differentiation. In Fixed income, cash bonds offer attractive all-in yields post-FOMC, and HY-IG spreads sit near historic tights. This week, Wednesday's Flash PMIs and Thursday's central bank decisions will shape positioning into August PCE data and month-end.

    Contributors

    CIO Office

     

    Ray Sharma-OngCIO and Head Discretionary Portfolio Management

     

    Julia Wang CIO North Asia


    Tathagata Bhar
    NSFSPL
    Anuragh Balajee
    NSFSPL

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