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CIO Corner
Weekly Investment Themes
Navigate the market landscape using CIO Office's Weekly Investment Themes, highlighting the week's crucial themes.
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AI Monetization Anxiety Weighs on Tech
November 03, 2026
The tech rout in October is more a reflection of AI monetization anxiety, and not broken fundamentals. In the US, AI contribution to GDP and earnings (~50% and 60-70%, respectively) amplifies portfolio risks. Fed patience helps; historical hike-cycle patterns suggest equities bottom three months in. Three phases could play out: (1) rates push higher amid equity resilience (September); (2) equities sell off alongside bonds (October, partly); and (3) timing uncertain but note that, historically, in a Fed hike cycle, equities bottom-out quite quickly (~ 3 months) and well before the last hike. Recovery now requires earnings breakthroughs or rate path clarity. Midterms and the Middle East situation compound uncertainty.
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Growth Resilience Amid AI, Geopoltical Uncertainties, and Inflation
October 27, 2026
Global growth is broadly holding up despite sticky and elevated inflation, with markets pricing three more Fed rate hikes until mid-2027. Middle East tensions remain live, pushing oil above $110/bbl and threatening critical shipping lanes. A negotiated resolution would favor equities, rates and EM FX (with USD strength coming off) while further escalation could trigger risk-off flows into USD and defensive equities. The week ahead is bringing key tech earnings testing AI sustainability, central bank guidance, and critical macro prints refining our growth-inflation outlook.
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The AI Earnings Test Looms Large
October 20, 2026
Chipmaker and hyperscaler earnings will test whether AI capex translates into revenue growth or valuation pressure. Investors will be closely watching monetization signals from key earnings releases this week (Meta, Tesla, Texas Instruments, for instance) as financing pressures emerge — CoreWeave's bond yields at 15% signal stress for leveraged infrastructure players. However, broader credit markets show stability for now, with stress concentrated mainly in the most distressed segments (Ca-D). The Fed decision next week should provide clarity on members' views on the policy rate trajectory.
Contributors
CIO Office
Ray Sharma-OngCIO and Head Discretionary Portfolio Management
Julia Wang CIO North Asia
Tathagata Bhar
NSFSPL
Anuragh Balajee
NSFSPL
Disclaimer
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IWM CIO Corner Disclaimer
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