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CIO Corner
Weekly Investment Themes
Navigate the market landscape using CIO Office's Weekly Investment Themes, highlighting the week's crucial themes.
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A Pause, Not a Resolution
July 28, 2026
Markets whipsawed on geopolitics and AI earnings last week. Tuesday opened firm — the S&P 500 rose 0.89% to 7,509, lifted by strong earnings from 3M and General Motors—before escalating US-Iran tensions triggered a sharp reversal. Thursday's selloff—S&P down 1.21%, Nasdaq down 2.15%—was driven by Alphabet's first negative free-cash-flow quarter and Tesla's 14% collapse, while oil spiked near $98-100 and the 10Y yield touched 4.71%. However, relief came as the US suspended strikes, but Wednesday's FOMC looms large: markets price roughly one-in-three odds of a hike, with the Hormuz–Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint remaining the dominant tail risk.
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Bloackade, Backlash, and the CPI Test
July 14, 2026
Last week’s resilience broke on Monday. Trump reinstated a blockade on Iranian shipping through Hormuz; the S&P fell 0.79%, Nasdaq 1.55%, KOSPI 9%. Hormuz transit collapsed to six vessels between Thursday and Friday, versus 18–22 daily earlier this month. Brent trades above $78. Today is the pivot: June CPI lands at 8:30am ET, with Warsh’s first Congressional testimony ninety minutes later. Bank earnings follow.
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Summer Broadening
July 07, 2026
Summer markets show broadening equity rally beyond mega-caps, with AI capex beneficiaries outperforming spenders amid monetization concerns. USD strength persists despite medium-term weakness signals. Falling commodities and inflation swaps create attractive real yields. Central banks remain hawkish post-conflict repricing. Changing supply-demand dynamics from IPOs and bond issuances favor non-tech sectors, structured products, dollar hedges, and alternative strategies.
Contributors
CIO Office
Julia Wang CIO North Asia
Tathagata Bhar
NSFSPL
Anuragh Balajee
NSFSPL
Disclaimer
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IWM CIO Corner Disclaimer
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